How It Works

The Simple Version

  1. Browse Markets - See all active prediction markets (no wallet needed!)

  2. Pick a Side - Choose YES or NO on any question

  3. Place Your Bet - Connect wallet and bet SOL

  4. Watch & Wait - Odds update live as others bet

  5. Claim Winnings - Withdraw if you picked the winning side

The Detailed Version

Parimutuel Betting System

Unlike traditional odds where the house sets the line, Noir uses parimutuel pools:

YES Pool: [All YES bets go here]
NO Pool:  [All NO bets go here]

How odds work:

  • Your odds = Total Pool ÷ Your Side's Pool

  • More people bet on YES → YES odds decrease, NO odds increase

  • More people bet on NO → NO odds decrease, YES odds increase

  • This creates a natural market balance

Example:

Let's say there's a market: "Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2025?"

Initial state:
YES Pool: 0 SOL
NO Pool:  0 SOL
Odds: 0.5 / 0.5 (even money)

Alice bets 10 SOL on YES:

YES Pool: 10 SOL
NO Pool:  0 SOL
Total: 10 SOL
YES Odds: 10/10 = 1.0x (no profit if she wins, since no losing pool)

Bob bets 20 SOL on NO:

YES Pool: 10 SOL
NO Pool:  20 SOL
Total: 30 SOL
YES Odds: 30/10 = 3.0x
NO Odds:  30/20 = 1.5x

Charlie bets 5 SOL on YES:

YES Pool: 15 SOL
NO Pool:  20 SOL
Total: 35 SOL
YES Odds: 35/15 = 2.33x
NO Odds:  35/20 = 1.75x

Market resolves: Bitcoin hits $100K - YES wins!

Winners (Alice + Charlie) split the NO pool proportionally:

  • Alice's share: (10 SOL / 15 SOL) × 20 SOL = 13.33 SOL profit

  • Alice's total return: 10 + 13.33 = 23.33 SOL ✅

  • Charlie's share: (5 SOL / 15 SOL) × 20 SOL = 6.67 SOL profit

  • Charlie's total return: 5 + 6.67 = 11.67 SOL ✅

  • Bob loses his 20 SOL ❌

This is why your odds can change - they depend on the final pool ratio when the market closes!

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